It’s a dangerous bill, from desperate politicians who need some kind of win to justify their own existence. It has broad Republican support. It could pass.
But my gut is telling me this whole thing is political theater, rather than an actual attempt to pass a law.Yes, it should be protested against, resisted, and taken seriously. But let’s not ignore the context that this bill is being birthed into.
Mitch McConnell has said he won’t hold a vote unless he knows he can pass the bill. And he has only until September 30 to do it with a simple majority. So he’s got mere days to flip the three no votes who shot down the so-called “skinny repeal” bill from July.
Why would they support a different flavor of the same cow pie?
Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski have voted against every previous half-assed repeal, and are saying the same things now that they were saying in July before that vote, that it’s bad for their state and doesn’t work. So I don’t see them flipping.
That leaves John McCain, who has spent what could be his last year in the Senate preaching for a return to “regular order” in debating, marking up, and driving bi-partisan support for bills. The G-C process is creating a massive bill that won’t be scored and will have TWO MINUTES of debate. This is not the regular order McCain craves.
It’s true that McCain did seem to voice support for G-C, but that was weeks ago, and nothing has happened since then. And it’s also true that he said he might go by whatever the governor of Arizona recommends, and AZ governor Doug Ducey just came out in support of G-C. But Ducey supported skinny repeal as well, and McCain voted against that. So past performance might not be an indicator of future performance there.
Beyond that, Rand Paul has already publicly said he’s a no on G-C, and several other GOPers who were rock solid on skinny repeal have expressed ambivalence about it.Of course, that could all change. Congressional Republicans are nothing if not complete hypocrites.