When Impeachment and Re-Election Collide

 

Democrats are riding a wave of anti-Trump outrage into the 2018 midterms, while Republicans find new ways to describe their discomfort at President Trump’s long, public breakdown.

Beyond that, historical precedent already puts the party in the White House behind the 8-ball. The House has changed parties four times since World War II: 1954, 1994, 2006, and 2010. All four were midterm elections where the president’s party lost control.

If that trend holds, Democrats will re-take the House, probably by a wide margin. And if that happens, it’s a safe bet that impeachment will follow. In fact, I wouldn’t be shocked if the first thing a newly Democratic House does is take a vote to authorize the House Judiciary Committee to begin an impeachment investigation, especially if Special Council Robert Mueller’s final report recommends it.

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The Nullification Eagle Will Not Save Us

Donald Trump is the President of the United States.

Yeah, I know.

But no matter what you think of that fact, the fact remains that it is a fact. He was elected by a majority in the Electoral College, and his election was certified by Congress. He was sworn in, and in that moment, his arc as president fell under an umbrella of laws set down by the writers of the Constitution, and refined over the centuries.

There are five ways for a president to lose their status as president. They can:

  • be voted out of office in the ensuing election
  • resign
  • die in office
  • be impeached by the House and convicted by the Senate
  • be removed by the Vice President and a majority of the Cabinet via the 25th Amendment

Donald Trump will be in office unless one of these things happens.

Or, maybe the Supreme Court will just nullify the whole thing as Trump is buried under a blizzard of indictments and arrest warrants.

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